Anticipating August 26th: Pioneer
Explore the potential pioneer banlist with TLK contributor Kazi Baker as he tries to cope with the fact that Vampires is free money.
Hello all!
Although not necessarily in-season, Pioneer (and explorer) are both inundated with calls for bans, adjustments, etc. As we head into some early RC preparation (remember, Duskmourne does release before DC), I would like to explore what our next pseudo-rotation will look like.
August 26th is the next Ban announcement. The following screenshots are a summary of the state of the format.
This is... rough. Rakdos decks are more than a third of the format, which is insane. Amalia would be considered problematic based on meta share alone. Phoenix's share is that of what would normally be considered the best deck in a "healthy" format, but it is less than half of the actual most popular deck's. Between the three archetypes, we see a meta share of greater than 60%. Over the past 2 weeks, those numbers go up to over two-thirds of the format. These are Yu-Gi-Oh numbers, and are unacceptable in standard, let alone a competitive eternal format. I actually cannot remember the last time I saw a format this top-heavy and inbred. Even modern right now, in what is widely considered a tier-0 format, we do not see numbers this skewed towards the top decks.
But what does this mean for our banlist? Let's talk through each of the potential bans which I think could realistically take place on August 26th, by category.
Ban Tier 1:
Decks and cards which necessitate immediate action
This is the easy first target on the list. Sorin has many issues, from unfun play patters, to power level, to splashability, as well as contributing heavily to the invalidation of traditionally aggressive archetypes in Pioneer. This card is seeing too much play at top tables, and is just enabling egregiously strong cards too early, while also limiting design space for future powerful high-cost creatures from the vampire type. All in all, it's literally just too strong.
Amalia Benavides Aguirre/Wildgrowth Walker
Amalia is another strong card, and albeit not seeing nearly as much play recently, but is still an egregious mistake. Broken creatures hold a special place in Pioneer, seeing as the format has Chord of Calling, and Amalia has proven to be the pinnacle of that. The deck also helps to invalidate traditionally agressive archetypes in a manner very similar to Sorin. Additionally, it also leads to really REALLY tough tournament logistics and play experiences due to its capacity to draw games out, forcing further games within a single match, as well as sometimes just killing you in a manner similar to Splinter Twin.
Wildgrowth Walker is not nearly as strong, but is the other half of the combo and relatively irreplaceable (I believe). Either one would likely remove the deck from the format, thereby revalidating aggressive strategies, and allowing for a significantly more open metagame.
Tier 2:
Cards which I believe will likely necessitate action in the future, whether that be on the 26th or later
This card has much less of a pedigree in this format than modern, however, access to copies 5-8 of the best creatures in your deck in exchange for no (or even reduced) mana is incredibly oppressive, and theoreticall could limit design space. What will actually happen is WoTC will continue to print broken creatures combos, and Chord will continue to make them far to consistent for the format.
I have been calling for this card to get banned for over a year, despite it carrying me to my first Pro Tour Invite. It has a few problems. First of all, the card is a bit too powerful for the format in my opinion. The worst case scenario for this upcoming banlist is Amalia and Rakdos receiving hits and then Nykthos remaining untouched, enabling Green storm to exist absent its natural predator (Amalia). Additionally, Nykthos games are just not fun. Since the inception of the format, even in weaker shells in different colors, Nykthos decks have always more or less had the gameplan of "draw Nykthos or die", Green decks just find it better and can ramp into something good enough to stall until they can access the card, while also accessing devotion itself very very effectively. The card being basically "draw it or die" devolves a lot of games into coin flips and, in my opinion, leads to unskilled gameplay where neither player has real agency over the outcome.
WoTC clearly loves Treasure Cruise, and I think we will start to figure out exactly how much in the near future, likely with the status of this card. As phoenix receives more and more tools (read as: cheap spells that replace/remove), this card will have to be put on the chopping block if WoTC wants to keep Cruise and Phoenix around. It's very much the best glue piece in the deck, and while it is fun, I think if we are powering down the format this card requires at the very least some very thorough inspection.
Tier 3:
WoTC will ban these if they want to outright rotate the format (or miss on the banlist)
This card would be ubiquitous in the face of the above bans, and to an extent, already is. However, compared to where it was before the printings of Vein Ripper, many red decks lean a bit more agressive, and theoretically this card does not fulfill a niche in those decks nearly as much, with decks like Gruul becoming lower to the ground. That being said, it would still likely be present in Enigmatic/Fires strategies, Red midrange, Niv to Light, and Creativity. I personally think this would be a huge miss, but the card is likely still on the list of potential bans, albeit towards the bottom.
This would be the definition of a band-aid ban. While the other options are (currently) weaker, there are still other options. These may or may not see immediate play, but if this card is banned instead of Sorin, I am willing to bet eventually we will get a vampire which is good enough to warrant further action. Right now, the top-end without Ripper includes cards like Ghalta and Mavren, Blood Baron of Vizkopa, or Lord Xander, the Collector, all of which are at least decent when cheated in, if not as protected as the Ripper. My point is really that although this would likely help to rebalance the format, it would likely end up in a similar spot later down the line.
Since the inception of the format, WoTC has made it clear that the best things you can do in the format are play Thoughtseize or Treasure Cruise. As a ceiling, this card usually receives much more attention, but with the format leaning so broken and so combo-centric at the moment, Treasure Cruise feels meager. This card is unlikely to get banned, but will continue to elicit complaints from people who don't like agency or would prefer their opponents not interact with them. This card should not see a ban, but sometimes WoTC gets to feeling like creatures are not already good enough, so we should ban all the instants and sorceries that draw cards because only creatures are allowed to draw cards.
I do hope for bans on the 26th. Ideally, I would prefer to see Sorin, Nykthos, and Amalia banned outright, no ifs, ands, buts, or concessions. I understand this would really shake up the format, but the fact is, the format has been stale for years at this point, with strategies centering around 3 shells (RB mid, UR spells, Nykthos) being at the top of the format since the Winota ban, with the occasional outside strategy (Greasefang, Amalia, etc.) popping up but eventually falling to the wayside except for Amalia holy shit please ban that deck WoTC I swear I am so tired...
sigh
The biggest benefit to the stability of that format is that it allowed for some amount of balance while also being unique in its makeup. Rather than the usual triangle of aggro, control, midrange, with the outside affect of combo, pioneer has often been made up of decks which modulate between all of the above. As cool as it is to have midrange-combo decks (amalia, vamps), or midrange control decks (phoenix), or aggressive combo decks (Green), the issue has arisen that the format's growth is making virtually everything a combo deck. I would argue that is just due to permanents doing too much, but that's another article. The fact is our aggro deck (vamps) is a combo deck, our midrange decks (also vamps, and amalia) are combo decks, our control deck (Phoenix) with the introduction of Proft's Eidetic Memory and Temporal Trespass being maintained is also just a combo deck, and the closest thing we have to an aggressive deck (Green) is definitely a combo deck that just happens to do 20 by turn 5 the natty way sometimes. The ubiquity of strategies doing things which go over the top by turn 5 has forced traditional aggressive strategies more or less out of the format, and the control decks are constantly walking the line of viability outright because having to account for so many different attack angles is nigh-impossible. As this has happened, decks have regressed more and more towards midrange soup splashing combos (except Amalia) because they need to be able to create value, and the best way to create value is to play good permanents or cast Cruises rather than interact with your opponent's plan. It almost feels like Yu-Gi-Oh of days past, where you and your opponent would both set up your best boards and then just bash into each other with the assistance of topdecks to try and work through it (nowadays in Yu-Gi-Oh, the player who goes first tries to set up, and then the other player has hand traps or f****** dies).
I think that the goal of this particular banlist should be to diversify this particular metagame. That being said, I think a lot of the issues in pioneer are endemic, as WoTC has printed more and more cards designed with strength in mind, with very little (or often no) downside protections or drawbacks. I am unsure if that characteristic of pioneer is "fixable", but I do look forward to a future where I will never have to play against Amalia Twin ever again.
#BanNykthos
-Kazi Baker
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